Seasonal Cash Flow Projection
Calculator
Results
- Lowest cash balance
- $65,186.57
- Ending cash
- $266,000.00
- Shortfall month
- Not reached within the projection
- Peak month revenue
- $94,250.00
Projected path over the horizon
- Cash balance
- Revenue
Period-by-period projection
| 1 | 35,750.00 | 44,087.50 | -8,337.50 | 71,662.50 |
| 2 | 39,668.76 | 45,850.94 | -6,182.18 | 65,480.32 |
| 3 | 50,375.00 | 50,668.75 | -293.75 | 65,186.57 |
| 4 | 65,000.00 | 57,250.00 | 7,750.00 | 72,936.57 |
| 5 | 79,625.00 | 63,831.25 | 15,793.75 | 88,730.32 |
| 6 | 90,331.24 | 68,649.06 | 21,682.18 | 110,412.50 |
| 7 | 94,250.00 | 70,412.50 | 23,837.50 | 134,250.00 |
| 8 | 90,331.24 | 68,649.06 | 21,682.18 | 155,932.18 |
| 9 | 79,625.00 | 63,831.25 | 15,793.75 | 171,725.93 |
| 10 | 65,000.00 | 57,250.00 | 7,750.00 | 179,475.93 |
| 11 | 50,375.00 | 50,668.75 | -293.75 | 179,182.18 |
| 12 | 39,668.76 | 45,850.94 | -6,182.18 | 173,000.00 |
| 13 | 35,750.00 | 44,087.50 | -8,337.50 | 164,662.50 |
| 14 | 39,668.76 | 45,850.94 | -6,182.18 | 158,480.32 |
| 15 | 50,375.00 | 50,668.75 | -293.75 | 158,186.57 |
| 16 | 65,000.00 | 57,250.00 | 7,750.00 | 165,936.57 |
| 17 | 79,625.00 | 63,831.25 | 15,793.75 | 181,730.32 |
| 18 | 90,331.24 | 68,649.06 | 21,682.18 | 203,412.50 |
| 19 | 94,250.00 | 70,412.50 | 23,837.50 | 227,250.00 |
| 20 | 90,331.24 | 68,649.06 | 21,682.18 | 248,932.18 |
| 21 | 79,625.00 | 63,831.25 | 15,793.75 | 264,725.93 |
| 22 | 65,000.00 | 57,250.00 | 7,750.00 | 272,475.93 |
| 23 | 50,375.00 | 50,668.75 | -293.75 | 272,182.18 |
| 24 | 39,668.76 | 45,850.94 | -6,182.18 | 266,000.00 |
Comparison
| Scenario | Lowest cash balance | Ending cash |
|---|---|---|
| Doing nothing | 80,000.00 | 266,000.00 |
| Your scenario | 65,186.57 | 266,000.00 |
Formula
R_m = R̄·[1 + s·cos(2π(m − peak)/12)]; cash_m = cash_(m−1) + R_m(1−v) − F= 65186.57
Note
Simplified model: this is the exact arithmetic of the stated recurrence applied to your inputs, with every rate held constant for the whole horizon. Real businesses see growth, churn, seasonality and costs move, and no projection accounts for competition, financing terms, tax or one-off events. Treat the crossing month as an order of magnitude, not a date, and check it against your own books before committing money.
More in Business projections
See all →Frequently asked questions
How is this different from a regular monthly cash flow forecast?+
A regular forecast often assumes flat or steadily growing revenue, which badly misrepresents a business with a holiday spike, a summer lull, or a back-to-school surge. This projection applies a seasonal index to each month so the troughs and peaks show up where they actually happen, letting you see exactly which months will be cash-tight before they arrive.
What is a seasonal index and how do I estimate mine?+
It's a multiplier showing how far a given month's revenue typically runs above or below your average month — 1.4 means 40% above average, 0.6 means 40% below. The most reliable way to estimate it is dividing each month's actual revenue from the past two or three years by your annual average for that year; using a generic retail seasonality curve is a fallback only if you have no sales history yet.
Why can the lowest cash point of the year fall in a month that isn't your slowest sales month?+
Cash lags sales because of the collection cycle, and expenses like inventory buildup for a peak season often happen one to two months before the revenue arrives. A business gearing up for December often hits its cash low in October or November, paying for stock and staffing before the sales that will fund it come in.
How much cash reserve should I hold based on this projection?+
Size your reserve to cover the gap between your lowest projected cash balance and zero, plus a margin for the projection being wrong — 15 to 20% padding is reasonable since seasonal patterns shift year to year. If the projection shows a trough of negative $8,000 relative to today's balance, you need at minimum that much in reserve or an accessible credit line before that month arrives.
Should I use last year's exact numbers or an adjusted baseline for this year?+
Adjust last year's numbers for known changes — price increases, new locations, lost customers, added product lines — rather than reusing them as-is, since the seasonal pattern is usually stable but the absolute scale rarely is. Feeding in stale absolute figures with an updated seasonal shape still gives a badly wrong projection if the business has grown or shrunk since then.